In the recent episode featuring Mark Bauer, Independent candidate for Texas' 24th district, we discussed what appeared to be a generational divide between conservative Christians over the performance of Donald Trump. For this week's episode, I asked the Data Monkey to dig into the polling and see if the numbers indicate a larger trend amongst conservative Christians/Evangelicals.
You can listen to the full episode below, on Spotify, iTunes, or wherever your bad self gets your podcasts.
On the whole, polling shows Trump has a much lower level of support among younger Evangelicals. One poll, cited by FiveThirtyEight.com, shows over half of Evangelicals age 45 and up view Trump very favorably, whereas only 25% of those under 44 do. What's more, the percentage of 45+ Evangelicals who view Trump "very favorably" is roughly equal to the percentage of those under 44 who view him "very unfavorably".
In another study done by the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey revealed younger Evangelicals have more liberal positions on everything from immigration to Medicare for All, whereas older Evangelicals tend to match the positions of the president.
Most strikingly, older Evangelicals appear to have shifted their priorities in line with the larger, Trump driven Republican platform since his election. For instance, in 2014, under 50% of Evangelicals cited immigration as a top issue, whereas that number grew to 70% in 2019. Older Evangelicals were also more likely to have negative views of immigration.
The one equalizer in the Evangelical population is the issue of abortion, where Evangelicals of all ages are fairly unified in their views. Given unity in the Evangelical vote is essential for Trump to win reelection in November, a fight over a Supreme Court nominee may be just what he needs.