As a year, 2020 was a decade in and of itself. What began with wildfires in Australia and a near war with Iran and ended with an American president refuting the results of an election for the first time in history contained a pandemic that changed how we work, educate our children, and communicate, and led us to question long standing issues of race and income inequality.
To Mauro Guillén, Professor of Management at Wharton and newly appointed Director of Cambridge Judge Business School, these changes were inevitable, and the pandemic only served to accelerate them.
His new book, 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything, describes a future where the world is older, hotter, and where the very nature of work and ownership change.
I sat down with Guillén for this episode of YDHTY to discuss his book and what policies America can put into place to adapt in the coming decade.
You can listen to the full episode below, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
SHOW NOTES
- In the coming decade, the percentage of Americans age 65 and older is expected to rise to over 20% of the population, up about 8% from the beginning of this century.
- With that demographic shift, America will need rely on immigration to ensure there are people to both care for the growing elderly population and provide a sufficient working age population for continued economic growth.
- At the same time, the nature of work itself will change, with many older Americans preferring part time work enabled by our newly emerging gig economy. This presents both an opportunity for older Americans and a challenge to our current system, where health care and economic security are tied to full-time employment.
- Economic uncertainty will be exacerbated by the continued use of automation and AI in the economies of North America and Western Europe, while the size of their middle class will be surpassed by those of East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Climate change will pose a threat to the world's largest cities.
Recommended policies:
- Policies such as universal health care and universal basic income should be on the table in the United States, as the source of both from private sector employment becomes less reliable for more Americans. Continued education and training should also be a priority to ensure the bulk of the working age population remains productive.
- Immigration policy should be rethought to open the doors for more skilled and unskilled workers, who'll be needed to backfill those retiring out of the workforce.
- Cities, which produce over half of all carbon emissions worldwide, will need to change their behaviors to reduce the effects of climate change. Technology offers solutions, with the ability to reduce waste in everything from fuel to food consumption via the sharing economy.
- America will no longer be the predominant economic and military power in the world. At the same time, the country's cultural significance gives it an incredible amount of soft power to shape world affairs. America should lean into this as a way to influence world affairs and ensure the decline of democratic values isn't one of this decade's major changes.
Additional Resources
Guillén's book can be purchased on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/2030-Biggest-Collide-Reshape-Everything/dp/1250268176
You can find more information on his website, MauroGuillen.com.